← Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.8% | -4.1 |
| Water Fractal | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.3% | -6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Myopic Lens | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Foresight Lens | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trivariate Dream | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alacritous Huntress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |